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The XAO is showing no preference for a material move up or down, but is continuing to achieve slightly higher highs this week in line with the upper boundary of a large price channel. With so many different influences working on the market, it is a 50/50 bet whether prices will rally and break higher or correct and fall in the short term. A continuation of the sideways creep until something pushes the market one way or the other is perhaps the most likely short term outlook.

My student long-term trade portfolio gained 2.2% this week and after 6 months is up 15.8% (31.6% on an annualised basis).

My own trades fell a little because of holdings in travel stocks FLT, WEB and SYD. I closed out some of these this week (WEB broke a stop loss for me) and of course both WEB and FLT rose significantly on Friday. I still hold 50% of my prior FLT trade because the chart suggests it is at support (and hence the Friday rise). I have moved my portfolio to more than 50% cash and while prepared to trade strong patterns, they are proving harder to see, with many stocks presenting bearish patterns.

Of my Stocks to Watch last week 4 rose and 4 fell with SLR up 8.6% and XRO has been removed after falling 5.5% (probably in response to the tech sector getting a bit of a hiding at the moment). XRO may rise back to break the overhead resistance that formed the basis of me including it on my report previously. Such an event, should it break above resistance, would reinforce my earlier target. FPH fell 7.0% but it is at a support level that may see it recover next week.

I’ve added NCM back to my list. It rose 3% this week and if that continues to see a close above resistance around $28.00 price should head up towards $30.00 where there is further resistance. As NCM’s fortunes are closely tied to those of gold it is often unpredictable. Gold seems to be breaking out of its downtrend moving above a weekly downtrend line. Another 3 weeks of higher prices will confirm a new uptrend and perhaps a spike in the value of other gold stocks. and perhaps a spike in the value of other gold stocks.

Contact

Robert Norman

Phone: 0428 346 951
Email: robert@sharecharting.com.au

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