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Despite the media trumpeting ‘best trading in months’ after a couple of big daily rises, we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact the XAO is below where it was 2 weeks ago and until price confidently closes above 7800 we haven’t shaken of the current 4 month downtrend.

My feeling remains that the XAO will break above 7800 but with the market nervous about inflation, COVID and China, nothing is certain.

Most sectors ended in positive territory this week with gold up a whopping 3.5% and consumer discretionary not far behind at 2.5%. However, tech could only manage 0.03% - so how well you did depended on how your portfolio was weighted.

I’ve done very little trading over the past few weeks, preferring to manage my existing trades and minimise risk in these 'interesting' times. This week my best performers were FMG and EVN – both up close to 6%. I did see one trade I couldn’t walk away from last Thursday when TXL spiked. I bought in on Friday and ended up 3% to the good – although the stock rose a staggering 24% this week. I believe it may go another 10% based on my analysis.

The XAO rose 1.65% for the week and while my own trading was close to 3.5% to the good – in part that would be compensation for last week when I fell short of the market.

In my Stocks to Watch this week I removed NMT after it fell 10.7% for the week and have included ILU which could have a 20% gain ahead of it if it moves back to the top of a price channel it has been in for the past 12 months.

(Note: I seemed to have suffered a technical glitch with my Stocks to Watch last week as it did not seem to have updated from the prior week. My apologies if this confused anyone.)


Robert Norman

Phone: 0428 346 951

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