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I suggested in a post the other day that the XAO could go either way from the 7,480 level that had been supporting it, and if it fell it could see 7,200. Price fell within 0.5% of that target this week – close enough to be considered reached. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices pull back a little more to fully achieve 7,200 before moving up again. The bad news is that if price falls below 7,030 (mores so if it closes below that level), I think we could very well move from a correction to a bear market with a potential target of 6,400. Hopefully, that doomsday scenario won’t happen, and prices will continue to build on Friday’s recovery, but it is worth keeping in the back of your mind.

While the XAO fell 3%, my risk off, educational portfolio fell back only 0.9% - so the theory seems to be working.

Unsurprisingly My Stocks to Watch generally fell back – heavily in the case of ILU and FLT who both ended 10% in the red for the week. The only real winner was PDN up 6%.

My own portfolio finished in line with the XAO due principally to ADO and FLT – both down around 10%. Both remain a hold in my view but were ADO to fall lower it will break my stop loss. FLT’s chart suggests further losses are quite possible but it is at a level of minor support.

A couple of other stocks I had picked (but not listed or bought) to possibly move up were COH and HUB – up 16% and 13% respectively.

Given the Ukraine issue is still unfolding (badly) I don’t consider it appropriate or wise to try to pick stocks likely to rise in the short term. However, gold could gain ground as it has broken above trend and being a safe haven in times of crisis, spiked this week before falling heavily to close lower.

Good luck.


Robert Norman

Phone: 0428 346 951

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