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With the Easter break I was a bit surprised by the buying on Thursday, but as they say, ‘never look a gift horse in the mouth’.

Both my personal portfolio and my educational (theoretical) portfolios trebled this result – so again, traders fortunes were determined by the sectors held. Both my portfolios are fairly diversified and defensive – so I’ve had days where the market does well and I see only mediocre performance, while on days when the market has been flat, I’ve seen good gains. It’s a crazy game.

Gold has been a bit of a disappointment for me this year as I expected more interest in it as a safe haven from the troubles of the world – of which there seem to be plenty at the moment. Looking at the chart of the gold sector below, price fell to long-term support (the blue dashed line) and rose as would be expected. However, it then decided to retest that earlier low (a common move) before trending up. Price has broken above a minor level of resistance at 6,970 before retesting it and moving up again. I’m expecting the sector to go to around 8,300 as an initial target.

XGD 15Apr22

If we look at GLD there is a not unexpected similarity in the price pattern.

GLD 15Apr22

Some might see this chart as a double top which predicts material falls in price. They could be right, but I think prices will move up to make a higher high and invalidate the double top.

Anyway, it could be a good time to think about gold stocks.

Stocks to Watch is still very much akin to a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey, but last week’s picks did well with BRB up 15.4%, RRL 17.2% and SLR 8.3%. All are gold stocks – which explains the rise. PDN finally got some traction and rose 6.6% for the week. It’s a stock I’ve been watching for a while and having now broken out of a long-term pennant pattern (and above a downtrend) it would seem to have the potential to go places (yes, I know ‘places’ could mean lower places as well as higher places – but I’m backing higher.)

I’ve not changed my list this week as those picks that rose all have the potential to go higher and the only laggard I have some concerns about it ASM, which fell 6% this week. More falls would see ASM as a losing pick, but I’ve left it in place as it is still sitting above or on a level of long-term support which has held since the stock was listed just under 2 years ago (so not a lot of history in charting terms, making ASM a slightly risky candidate for charting purposes).

The XAO stalled at 7,800 resistance before falling back a tad. However, the week’s candle was positive, closing almost at its high, being the highest close since September last year. Failing bad news, I expect the XAO to continue its push towards 8,050 or higher. Despite this optimism you need to be careful of spec stocks and any stock not yet turning a dollar – just look at what the Nasdaq as done (down over 15% for the year to date)


Robert Norman

Phone: 0428 346 951

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