NCM has been reliably trading in a long-term price channel for several years and with price fallen close to the lower channel boundary last week, there is a potential for a change of trend on the horizon. Recent analysis suggested a bottom around $24.45. The elephant in the room is that Elliott Wave suggests price could fall down out of the channel and make significantly lower prices. Personally, I can't see why that would happen to our largest gold producer and my money would be on prices moving up in the near future - but I wouldn't be buying on the hunch they 'might' rise - I'd need to see a confirmed move up.

9 October 2020

The July analysis below suggested price would fall back to the lower boundary of the shaded price channel. It fell trough that level and could be headed for the lower boundary of the long-term price channel (blue dashed lines). That fall could have some uptick along the way as the fall is likely to be a 3 wave decline (2 down separated by 1 up wave). There is support at $28 but lower prices for another 2 weeks will see NCM in a technical weekly downtrend. 

31 July 2020

NCM was sold this week for a 6.6% profit.  Price had been rising strongly in a price channel since the March low and made a resistance break pattern at $32.53 with a target of $37. The target was just below the upper boundary of a long-term price channel that has been in force for 7 years (blue dashed line). I felt the resistance of the target level and the long-term channel boundary would stop price and I exited at $36.62 as price started to fall back. Price could now be expected to retrace back to the lower boundary of the green shaded price channel.