NCM failed to achieve its possible move up noted a month ago. Price fell back after hitting resistance at $28.80 but after getting as low as $26.11 it jumped 3% last week. If that recovery is sustained and price again gets above $28.80, a target of $31.70 is possible in the short term. Note that support and resistance levels tend to be a bit random with NCM and I have recalculated them on the chart below.

While I don't put a lot of importance on Time Theory, it is interesting. The vertical lines on the chart suggest times when price could change trend (ie a peak or trough). It's not 100% reliable but most of the line on NCM's chart fall close to a peak or trough. If price does rise for a time the theory suggests a possible peak to that rally around a week or two either side of June 10. Something to watch. 

NCM 7May21

 

8 April 2021

NCM has broken above a downtrend that has been in force since last August. The stock has been trading in a large price channel  since 2013 and price has recently bounced up off that channel lower boundary and made a higher weekly high. While it could be expected price could retest the lower channel boundary once more before moving higher, all analysis suggests NCM's price will move back towards the upper boundary of its price channel. Such a move, over time, to around $40 would represent a potential gain of 50%. NCM can be quite volatile but could be worth considering as a long term hold.

NCM 8Apr21

29 January 2021

NCM has been reliably trading in a long-term price channel for several years and with price fallen close to the lower channel boundary last week, there is a potential for a change of trend on the horizon. Recent analysis suggested a bottom around $24.45. The elephant in the room is that Elliott Wave suggests price could fall down out of the channel and make significantly lower prices. Personally, I can't see why that would happen to our largest gold producer and my money would be on prices moving up in the near future - but I wouldn't be buying on the hunch they 'might' rise - I'd need to see a confirmed move up.

NCM 29Jan2021

9 October 2020

The July analysis below suggested price would fall back to the lower boundary of the shaded price channel. It fell trough that level and could be headed for the lower boundary of the long-term price channel (blue dashed lines). That fall could have some uptick along the way as the fall is likely to be a 3 wave decline (2 down separated by 1 up wave). There is support at $28 but lower prices for another 2 weeks will see NCM in a technical weekly downtrend. 

NCM 9Oct2020

31 July 2020

NCM was sold this week for a 6.6% profit.  Price had been rising strongly in a price channel since the March low and made a resistance break pattern at $32.53 with a target of $37. The target was just below the upper boundary of a long-term price channel that has been in force for 7 years (blue dashed line). I felt the resistance of the target level and the long-term channel boundary would stop price and I exited at $36.62 as price started to fall back. Price could now be expected to retrace back to the lower boundary of the green shaded price channel.

NCM Jul 31

Contact

Robert Norman

Phone: 0428 346 951
Email: robert@sharecharting.com.au

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