Price fell back and then rose from the lower boundary of the rectangle shown on the chart below. The chart suggests price will move back to the upper boundary at $34.90. Should price break up out of this flag pattern, a material rise in price could be expected. However, that level is a very strong level of resistance and price may simply reverse off it, as it has done previously.

FPH 20Aug21

26 March 2021

FPH appears to have completed Elliott Wave 4 which would suggest a material rise in price into Wave 5 is ahead, however, there is an alternative wave cound that suggests price has already peaked and the rise over the past 2 weeks is just a blip in an otherwise downward move. I have formed the view this is a special type of pattern known as a Wyckoff pattern which says price should now possibly fall back a tad to retest the lower boundary of the rectangle drawn on the chart and then make generally higher troughs and peaks for some time (ie rise strongly).

FPH 26Mar21

15 January 2021

Like CSL and TCL, FPH has let me down and closed below trend for the 3rd consecutive week and is now definitely in sell territory. Down 9% from its last higher weekly trough I'd be prepared to let this trade to run on a while longer but a close below support at $28.40 would be the line in the sand.

FPH 15Jan21

9 December 2020

As per the post below, price did move up as hoped but it has fallen back almost to that same level. Backtesting showed that a stop loss of 9% below a higher trough worked well for FPH and the current price is about 6% below a lower trough. Price has also fallen below a weekly uptrend and a close below trend this week and next week would be a hint to sell. FPH is a strong trending stock with a strong performance in recent years, All good things must come to an end I guess!

FPH 9Dec2020

27 September 2020

Given an enquiry I received about FPH I thought it worthwhile updating my commentary of last month.

FPH did not break higher above resistance as hoped but fell back to an underlying uptrend support line. The chart immediately below is a weekly chart whereas the original chart was daily. I use both in my analysis but the weekly chart is the principal reference as most charting signals rely on weekly, not daily, price movements. I’ve also adjusted the uptrend line from the ‘simplified’ trendline (as per my basic education package) to the more complex technical trendline (explained in my advanced material). There are two acceptable trendline placements in my opinion. I am relying on the black dashed line, but the steeper red dashed line is also technically correct. If relying on that steeper line for a sell signal such as 2 weekly closes below same, a sell would have triggered on the week ended 18 September. However, my trading rules (based on a backtest over several years which suggested FPH often briefly breaks below uptrend lines before recovering) require price to fall and to close more than 10% below a higher trough (see educational material). The recent fall was 8.6% below the higher trough so it did not trigger my stop loss before rising strongly last week. Hopefully, it will now recover to rise above $35 as originally suggested – but these are troubled times and noting is guaranteed.

FPH 26Sept2020

28 August 2020

FPH has been rising consistently for about 8 years and had you used a Trendline Trading Technique as explained in my material to enter the return on the trade would have been in excess of 1500%! I traded the stock in July with the thick green line my target and managed to sell at the top. Price then fell away before having another try at the target level (resistance) only to fall away again. I've bought back in on the basis that price will now break that resistance and give me a target of $38.75. While FPH's run has to come to an end sooner or later I'm planning to stick with it as a long term trade rather than my usual strategy if rising the rises and buying back in after a fall back. My stop loss will be 10% below buy in or subsequent higher trough. I will also use 2 consecutive weekly closes below a valid trend line as a potential stop loss.

FPH 27Aug2020


Robert Norman

Phone: 0428 346 951

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