Price has fallen back a little from last weeks high and while it has bounced a little at the end of the week from support around $14.40 it remains to be see if it continues higher next week. The fall back to support could just be a retest and price will now move back up to my $14.50 target. The alternative is a fall back to around $14.20 before heading back up. Going ex-dividend on the 29th could see temporarily lower prices. Still making higher peaks and troughs and above an uptrend so the stock remains a 'buy'.

18 June 2021

TCL has risen strongly over the past couple of months and at $15 has struck resistance. If the stock pushes through this level is further resistance at  $15.48 which I also have as an interim target for this stock. If price continues higher the next target is $16.46 which is coincidentally also TCL's all-time high which it reached just before the Covid crunch in March 2020. I'd expect price to ultimately go above $16.50 but that's getting a bit far into the future to speculate on. Coming off a low it could be expected to return to somewhere near its previous highs, offering more potential than many other stocks that are on a roll near or at their highs.

TCL 18 June21


8 April 2021

As noted below TCL hasn't been a stellar performer since the Covid fall 12 months ago. Concerns about traffic volume falling during lockdowns here and overseas was probably the driver. It has been a fantastic long term hold historically and will probably be so again. Four weeks ago it broke above a downtrend and more recently made a higher trough and peak on the weekl chart- both being technical buy signals. There are potential targets of $16.30 and $17.70 on the horizon.

TCL 8Apr21

15 January 2021

TCL has continued to disappoint, and now haven fallen and closed below both a weekly and monthly trend for 2 consecutive months it is starting to say sell. Price closed this week only 5.5% below the last higher weekly trough so for anyone wishing to tough it out the pullback in percentage terms hasn't been significant.

23 December 2020

TCL hasn't performed as I had hoped, having risen only to fall back, rise and fall back again. I backtested this stock and it performed very well using monthly trendlines (the pink dashed lines) and the green horizontal line in October is a buyi-n price my backtesting supported. Price seems to have formed a rising price channel where price has bounced up off the lower boundary a week ago (actually it stopped just short of the boundary so price could be expected to potentially drop back to $13.45 before moving up in earnest). The blue dashedl ine is a long-term support level going back to 2014 so that price should (not 'will'!) hold above that and coming off a low I'd expect TCL to show some life when traffic volumes pick up post Covid lockdowns. TCL is a long-term trade.

TCL 23Dec20

6 September 2020

I was asked what I thought about TCL as a long-term investment. Now while I don’t provide financial advice the following is what the charts told me.

TCL has been trading in a rising channel for over 10 years – which is a pretty good determinant of price movement – but, nothing lasts forever either.


Last week's price movements confirmed a formal downtrend as prices have been moving lower for at least 12 weeks. If I was looking to buy I’d be waiting until price closes for 2 consecutive weeks above the downtrend line (black line in the chart below).


$13.50 is a level of support/resistanceand as price broke below that it suggests there is a risk prices could fall back even further – possibly to around that blue dashed line which has proved support previously. The bullish engulfing candle (last week) often means a change of trend – ie price will move up in this case. So conflicting messages.

The daily chart below shows price bounced lower off the downtrend resistance on Friday – but as Friday was a terrible day for most stocks I’m not reading a lot into that.



I’m expecting prices to fall lower but if it does move up and close above that downtrend for 2 consecutive weeks it is a technical buy. I’d also like to see it make a higher low followed by a higher high on the weekly (another buy signal). Once it makes a new uptrend (12 weeks higher) then it is clearly on the road to recovery (but you can lose a lot of profit waiting for 3 months!). However, until it reaches that milestone it remains in a downtrend with a chance it will resume that trend.

I did a backtest of TCL from 2009. This showed TCL is a tricky beast as it usually breaks below an uptrend for 3 or so weeks and tosses you out of a trade before recovering and going higher. The test also suggested that you shouldn’t buy into TCL until it has made a higher low and higher high on the weekly chart and is in a formal uptrend – 12 weeks of higher prices.

Unlike the vast majority of stocks, the backtest also showed if you bought in at the start of the test period and just held until now you would have made a return of 162% or 15% pa – more than the 97% return from a trendline managed trade. The reason the technical trade did less well is because price largely went sideways from 2016 to 2019 and trades in that period kept getting stopped out. Also the Covid fall in March this year saw a lot of profit go up in smoke with no entry point since the end of that fall (until last week that is)

Sit and hold isn’t a policy I can subscribe to because you must always have a stop loss – but apart from a stop loss below a buy in price, I wasn’t able to arrive at a workable stop loss rule. However, not one to be beaten I moved to a monthly chart (which filters out a lot of the short-term fluctuations) and if you bought after one monthly close above a monthly downtrend line and sold 2 weeks below a monthly uptrend line I showed a profit of 189% over the decade or so as against the 162% sit and hold. Not a lot more admittedly – but you have the insurance of a stop loss (which worked once during the period).


Robert Norman

Phone: 0428 346 951

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