Price fell away from that shown in December's chart below and has broken strongly down to close 4 consecutive weeks below the weekly uptrend and 2 weeks below the lower boundary of a price channel. Price fell 9.7% last week and is now a sell. Price is probably close to or at its bottom with my best estimate of that being $27.50 to $28.65. 

9 December 2020

The target mentioned below was not achieved as price stopped short and fell back to the price channel lower boundary. ALU has continued to trade higher making a sawtooth pattern within a price channel. If the channel is maintained price should now be rising back towards $42-$43 (the only concern is that price did not fall all the way to the lower channel boundary and that step back remains a possibility.

ALU 9Dec2020

9 October 2020

ALU is making a third attempt to break above resistance at $37.50 and should it do so there is a potential target of $41.20 suggested. In time I'd expect price to make its way back to the upper boundary (blue dashed line) of a long term price channel. If this eventuates it suggests a price of $50 is on the horizon. The alternative view is that price is currently rising on an Elliott Wave B which, if correct, would mean price should not go above the previous high of $42.76 before falling away strongly. Which view prevails depends on whether the March high was the top of Wave 3 or Wave 5. I'm going for the former - ie Wave 3.

Price needs to close above $38 for the target to be confirmed. That price will also confirm a higher low followed by a higher high which is a buy signal. Price is also presently in an uptrend and above a weekly uptrend line.

ALU 9Oct2020


Robert Norman

Phone: 0428 346 951

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